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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

December 20269 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-111FIDE World Chess Championship 2026FIDE WCC 2026 match begins by Dec 31, 2026 — ~0.80not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-151USD/JPY year-end 2026USD/JPY closes 2026 inside 140–180 (band, direction not predicted) — ~0.92Japan31 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-193Japan 10-year JGB year-end 2026Japan 10-year JGB yield closes 2026 ≤4.00% (vs 2.86% in mid-Aug; locked against the uptrend) — ~0.91Japan31 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-197Silver year-end 2026Silver spot ≥US$38/oz at final 2026 close (floor sized to the 2011 -47% precedent) — ~0.90not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-198German 10-year Bund year-end 2026German 10-year Bund yield closes 2026 ≤4.50% (vs 3.27%, a 15-year high; locked against trend) — ~0.91Germany31 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked

January 202714 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.82United States4 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-85Brent 2026 annual average2026 Brent calendar-year average ≥ $85/bbl (EIA) — ~0.78not yet tagged15 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.90United States15 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.94FranceUnited States15 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-259Canadian National FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS growthCN FY2026 ADJUSTED DILUTED EPS growth >= 3.0% (guidance raised to mid-to-high single digits; 3 EPS measures exist — adjusted diluted is the guided one) — ~0.92Canada26 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-235ASML FY2026 total net salesASML FY2026 TOTAL NET SALES >= EUR 40bn (the TOP of the OLD guidance range, not the floor of the raised EUR 43-45bn) — ~0.91NetherlandsTaiwan27 Jan 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-253SAP FY2026 cloud revenueSAP FY2026 CLOUD REVENUE at CONSTANT CURRENCIES >= EUR 25.0bn (guidance EUR 25.8-26.2bn cc; backlog EUR 22.9bn) — ~0.92Germany27 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-236LVMH FY2026 revenueLVMH FY2026 reported group REVENUE >= EUR 76bn (seasonality-anchored; LVMH issues no revenue guidance) — ~0.92France28 Jan 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-258Roche FY2026 sales growthRoche FY2026 GROUP sales growth >= 3% AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATES (H1 +6% CER vs -2% CHF — opposite signs; level conflict so the RATE is locked) — ~0.92Switzerland28 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-271KONE FY2026 adjusted EBIT marginKONE FY2026 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 11.8% (guidance 12.3-13% unchanged; threshold = the margin H1 already delivered) — ~0.91Finland28 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-265Teva FY2026 revenueTeva FY2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 16.0bn (guidance raised to USD 16.5-16.8bn; total revenue, NOT the separately-guided product lines) — ~0.92Israel29 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-79UnitedHealth FY2026 adjusted EPSFY2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $18.25 (guide floor) — calibrated ~0.82United States31 Jan 2027locked 23 Jun 2026Locked
P-872026 top-3 warmest year2026 ranks top-3 warmest year on record (Copernicus C3S) — ~0.93not yet tagged31 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-99Toyota best-selling automaker 2026Toyota = world's best-selling automaker for calendar 2026 — ~0.93Japan31 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

February 202717 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-218Diageo H1 FY2027 organic net salesDiageo H1 FY27 organic net sales growth ≥−5% (decline-bounded floor; organic not reported) — ~0.90United Kingdom2 Feb 2027locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-267Ferrari FY2026 adjusted EBITDAFerrari FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= EUR 2.90bn (guidance raised to >=EUR 2.97bn; 4 metrics guided, this names one) — ~0.93Italy2 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-230Glencore FY2026 own-sourced copper productionGlencore FY2026 own-sourced copper ≥ 790kt (guidance basis 840kt; tonnes locked, price NOT forecast) — ~0.90Switzerland3 Feb 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-255Santander FY2026 total revenueSantander FY2026 TOTAL REVENUE >= EUR 60.0bn (H1 EUR 30.85bn; revenue locked NOT profit — H1 profit carries a one-off) — ~0.93Spain3 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-261Equinor FY2026 oil and gas production growthEquinor FY2026 OIL AND GAS production growth >= 1.5% (guidance 3%, H1 delivered 6%; NOT renewable power, +11% in Q2) — ~0.91Norway4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-264Vinci FY2026 free cash flowVinci FY2026 FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 5.4bn (guidance ~EUR 6bn; 10% buffer widened for construction cash-timing swings) — ~0.90France4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-276DSV FY2026 EBIT before special itemsDSV FY2026 EBIT BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= DKK 22.5bn (guidance narrowed UP to DKK 23.5-25.5bn; forwarder, opposite freight exposure to P-237 Maersk) — ~0.91Denmark4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-283Givaudan FY2026 like-for-like sales growthGivaudan FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.0% (H1 +3.6% LFL vs -1.7% reported CHF — opposite signs; the 4-6% target is a 2026-2030 AVERAGE, not FY26 guidance) — ~0.91Switzerland4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-237Maersk FY2026 underlying EBITDAMaersk FY2026 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= USD 10.0bn (guidance raised to USD 10.5-12.5bn; underlying NOT reported EBITDA) — ~0.89Denmark5 Feb 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-282UniCredit FY2026 net profitUniCredit FY2026 REPORTED net profit >= EUR 10.5bn incl. integration costs (guidance raised 3x to well above EUR 11bn) — ~0.93Italy9 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-254Heineken FY2026 organic operating profit growthHeineken FY2026 ORGANIC operating profit growth >= 1.5% (reiterated 2-6% guide; H1 was 6.7%, above its own top) — ~0.91Netherlands10 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-260DBS FY2026 total incomeDBS FY2026 GROUP TOTAL INCOME > FY2025 (relative comparison — the 2025 base could not be independently verified, so no threshold was invented) — ~0.90Singapore10 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-251ArcelorMittal FY2026 iron ore shipmentsArcelorMittal FY2026 IRON ORE shipments >= 17.0 Mt (guidance maintained 18 Mt; mining leg, explicitly NOT a steel call) — ~0.90Luxembourg11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-252Unilever FY2026 underlying sales growthUnilever FY2026 UNDERLYING sales growth >= 3.5% (guided within 4-6%; H1 4.8% with 4.2pts volume) — ~0.92United Kingdom11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-266Adyen FY2026 net revenue growthAdyen FY2026 NET REVENUE growth >= 18% AT CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 21-23% cc; H1 +19% reported vs +21% cc) — ~0.91Netherlands11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-278RELX FY2026 profit growth vs revenue growthRELX FY2026 UNDERLYING adjusted operating profit growth EXCEEDS underlying revenue growth (relative lock — RELX guided a relationship, not a number) — ~0.93United Kingdom11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-303Enbridge FY2026 adjusted EBITDAEnbridge FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= C$19.6bn (guidance C$20.2-20.8bn reaffirmed; C$41bn secured backlog; tolls on volume not the oil price) — ~0.93Canada12 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

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