The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 10 of 345 ·Japan ×Clear all
August 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-38 | Nintendo Switch 2 unitsSwitch 2 cumulative units shipped ≥ 22.0M at Q1 FY27 — ~0.72HIT - Switch 2 lifetime units 23.68M at Q1 FY27 (Jun 30), >=22.0M.Japan | 6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
July 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-91 | Bank of Japan July 2026 decisionBoJ holds policy rate at 1.0% at July 2026 meeting — ~0.85HIT - the BoJ held the policy rate at 1.0% (8-1) at the July meeting.Japan | 31 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
November 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-195 | Japan October 2026 core CPIJapan Oct 2026 core CPI ex-fresh-food ≤3.0% YoY (vs 1.8% July) — ~0.93Japan | 20 Nov 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Locked |
December 20264 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-203 | Nikkei 225 year-end 2026Nikkei 225 closes 2026 inside 50,000-82,000 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.92Japan | 30 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-53 | Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.88Japan | 31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-151 | USD/JPY year-end 2026USD/JPY closes 2026 inside 140–180 (band, direction not predicted) — ~0.92Japan | 31 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-193 | Japan 10-year JGB year-end 2026Japan 10-year JGB yield closes 2026 ≤4.00% (vs 2.86% in mid-Aug; locked against the uptrend) — ~0.91Japan | 31 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
January 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-99 | Toyota best-selling automaker 2026Toyota = world's best-selling automaker for calendar 2026 — ~0.93Japan | 31 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026 | Locked |
May 20272 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-299 | Toyota FY2027 operating incomeToyota FY2027 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 3.1tn (forecast RAISED JPY 400bn to 3.4tn on FX while Q1 operating income FELL — threshold between old and new) — ~0.91Japan | 12 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-247 | Sony FY2026 operating incomeSony FY2026 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 1,600bn (guidance raised to JPY 1,720bn; Q1 carried ~JPY 80bn one-off tariff refunds) — ~0.90Japan | 14 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |