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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 35 of 345 ·December 2026 ×Clear all

December 202635 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.91United States1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-157European TTF gas 1 Dec 2026TTF front-month gas settles ≤€100/MWh on 1 Dec 2026 — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-182Uranium spot 1 Dec 2026Uranium spot ≤US$130/lb U3O8 on 1 Dec 2026 (spot, not long-term contract) — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-199Arabica coffee 1 Dec 2026ICE Arabica Coffee C settles ≤500c/lb on 1 Dec 2026 (~16% above the 52-week high) — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-20F1 2026 Drivers' title (rest-of-season simulation)Antonelli ~70% champion — 40k-run Monte-Carlo (model 81% / market 61%, disclosed)not yet tagged15 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260MUnited States21 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.78United States21 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-203Nikkei 225 year-end 2026Nikkei 225 closes 2026 inside 50,000-82,000 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.92Japan30 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-204DAX year-end 2026DAX closes 2026 inside 21,000-32,000 (band; correlated with P-198, disclosed) — ~0.92Germany30 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-endUnited States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-28Strategy (MSTR) 1M-BTC targetMSTR holds < 1,000,000 BTC at year-end — ~0.90not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-29Bitcoin year-end 2026BTC CME BRR settles < $90,000 on Dec 31 — ~0.85not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.78United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.84United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-53Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.88Japan31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-61Stablecoin market capTotal stablecoin market cap > $340B at year-end — ~0.82not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-62USDT #1 stablecoinUSDT is the #1 stablecoin by market cap at year-end — ~0.98not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-63No private-fusion Q>1 in 2026No verified private-fusion scientific Q>1 in 2026 — ~0.96not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-83Gold year-end 2026Gold closes 2026 ≥ $3,500/oz (structural floor) — ~0.95not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.80India31 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-111FIDE World Chess Championship 2026FIDE WCC 2026 match begins by Dec 31, 2026 — ~0.80not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-151USD/JPY year-end 2026USD/JPY closes 2026 inside 140–180 (band, direction not predicted) — ~0.92Japan31 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-193Japan 10-year JGB year-end 2026Japan 10-year JGB yield closes 2026 ≤4.00% (vs 2.86% in mid-Aug; locked against the uptrend) — ~0.91Japan31 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-197Silver year-end 2026Silver spot ≥US$38/oz at final 2026 close (floor sized to the 2011 -47% precedent) — ~0.90not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-198German 10-year Bund year-end 2026German 10-year Bund yield closes 2026 ≤4.50% (vs 3.27%, a 15-year high; locked against trend) — ~0.91Germany31 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked

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