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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

February 202723 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-30Hyperscaler 2026 capexMSFT+GOOGL+AMZN+META CY2026 capex ≥ $600B — ~0.95not yet tagged15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.88United States15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.85United States15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-262América Móvil FY2026 capital expenditureAmérica Móvil FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 6.3bn (guidance ~USD 7bn; capex locked because Q2 EBITDA growth was published 3 ways) — ~0.90BrazilMexico16 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-268Carrefour FY2026 net free cash flowCarrefour FY2026 GROUP NET FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 1,450m (floor set BELOW the 2025 base of EUR 1,565m — H1 was NEGATIVE EUR 1.99bn) — ~0.90France17 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-269Woodside FY2026 productionWoodside FY2026 group PRODUCTION >= 170 MMboe (guidance 174-185 reaffirmed; H1 86.5; a source discrepancy is disclosed and non-decisive) — ~0.92Australia17 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-248Nestlé FY2026 organic sales growthNestlé FY2026 ORGANIC sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance 3-4%; organic = RIG + pricing, NOT reported sales) — ~0.91Switzerland18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-277Schneider Electric FY2026 organic revenue growthSchneider Electric FY2026 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 8.5% (guidance raised to 10-13% from 7-10%; threshold sits between the two floors) — ~0.92France18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-280Zurich Insurance FY2026 business operating profitZurich FY2026 GROUP business operating profit >= USD 9.0bn (record H1 USD 4.8bn; FY2025 USD 8.9bn; buffer sized for hurricane season) — ~0.91Switzerland18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-322Vale 2026 iron ore PRODUCTIONVale calendar-2026 iron ore PRODUCTION >= 320 Mt (guidance 335-345 Mt maintained with 2 quarters banked; NOT sales, NOT pellets; cost guidance RAISED to US$58-62/t) — ~0.93Brazil18 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-274Safran FY2026 recurring operating incomeSafran FY2026 RECURRING OPERATING INCOME >= EUR 6.2bn (guidance raised to ~EUR 6.5bn; H1 EUR 3,237m +29%) — ~0.92France19 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-279Iberdrola FY2026 adjusted net profit growthIberdrola FY2026 ADJUSTED net profit growth >= 5% (guidance comfortably above 8%; H1 reported +22% vs adjusted +8% — widest gap locked against) — ~0.91Spain24 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-285Danone FY2026 like-for-like sales growthDanone FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance +3-5% confirmed; H1 3.5%, Q2 4.2%; growth split 1.7% volume / 1.8% price) — ~0.92France24 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-345CP All 7-Eleven THAILAND store count at 31 Dec 2026CP All 7-ELEVEN THAILAND net store count at 31 Dec 2026 >= 16,500 (16,284 at 30 Jun 2026 from 15,945 at end-2025; ~700 openings targeted — locked at a 40% shortfall to plan) — ~0.92Thailand24 Feb 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-217AXA FY2026 underlying EPS growthAXA FY2026 underlying EPS growth ≥6% (reported outcome, not guidance restatement) — ~0.91France25 Feb 2027locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-250Petrobras FY2026 oil productionPetrobras FY2026 average OIL production >= 2.45 million bpd (NOT oil-and-gas on a boe basis; Q2 record 2.7 mmbpd) — ~0.91Brazil25 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-272Bank Central Asia FY2026 net profitBCA FY2026 CONSOLIDATED NET PROFIT >= IDR 56tn (H1 IDR 29.5tn; loan-book sources conflict IDR 1,036 vs 1,082tn so profit is locked) — ~0.91Indonesia25 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-273LSEG FY2026 organic revenue growthLSEG FY2026 TOTAL ORGANIC revenue growth >= 6.0% at CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 7.0-7.5%; NOT subscription growth, guided ~6.5%, which straddles this floor) — ~0.92United Kingdom25 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-293Summerset FY2026 group home deliveriesSummerset FY2026 GROUP home deliveries >= 650 incl. Australia (guidance 700-800; NZ-only guidance CUT by 50 to 600-650 — the criterion names GROUP) — ~0.91New Zealand25 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-270BASF FY2026 EBITDA before special itemsBASF FY2026 EBITDA BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= EUR 6.6bn (guidance raised to EUR 6.9-7.7bn; prior-guidance anchor consciously OVERRIDDEN, see brief) — ~0.94Germany26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-284Amadeus FY2026 revenueAmadeus FY2026 group REVENUE >= EUR 6.4bn (LEVEL-anchored off banked H1 EUR 3,334.9m; the trimmed outlook range could not be verified and is NOT the anchor) — ~0.91Spain26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-286Veolia FY2026 organic EBITDA growthVeolia FY2026 ORGANIC EBITDA growth >= 4.0% (guidance MAINTAINED 5-6% while net income guidance was RAISED to >=8% — we anchored on the one that held) — ~0.92France26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.90United States28 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

March 20275 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in March 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-257Saudi Aramco FY2026 capital expenditureSaudi Aramco FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 48bn (guidance unchanged USD 50-55bn; H1 USD 25.1bn) — ~0.91Saudi Arabia9 Mar 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-275adidas FY2026 operating profitadidas FY2026 OPERATING PROFIT >= EUR 2.10bn (guidance ~EUR 2.3bn; ~9% buffer for EUR 212m committed World Cup marketing) — ~0.90Germany10 Mar 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-291Bayer FY2026 salesBayer FY2026 SALES >= EUR 43.0bn CURRENCY-ADJUSTED (guidance EUR 44.7-47bn affirmed; H1 loads the year on planting seasons) — ~0.91Germany10 Mar 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-338Standard Bank Group 2026 HEADLINE EARNINGSStandard Bank Group calendar-2026 HEADLINE EARNINGS >= R48bn (H1 record R26.1bn, ROE 19.8%; headline earnings is a JSE-DEFINED measure, NOT IFRS profit; 2028 targets excluded) — ~0.93South Africa11 Mar 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-229Enel FY2026 ordinary EBITDAEnel FY2026 ORDINARY EBITDA ≥ EUR 22.5bn (guidance EUR 23.1-23.6bn; H1 EUR 11.8bn) — ~0.92Italy18 Mar 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked

April 20272 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in April 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-337JSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel productionJSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel production >= 25.0 Mt (guidance ~28-29 Mt but Q1 annualises to 26.4 Mt — locked BELOW the run rate; correlated with P-326, disclosed) — ~0.91India8 Apr 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-319HCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growthHCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growth >= 0.5% (guidance 1-4% RETAINED; Q1 was +2.6% YoY and −0.5% QoQ in cc, +3.0% and −0.9% in USD) — ~0.91India22 Apr 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

May 202710 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in May 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-344Ambuja Cements capacity at end-FY2027Ambuja Cements CEMENT CAPACITY at end-FY2027 >= 115 MTPA (109 MTPA today, 119 MTPA targeted, trial production commenced; Q1 volume FELL 14% so the 8% volume guidance was declined per the P-328 reasoning) — ~0.91India3 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-336Marico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUEMarico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= INR 14,000 crore (stated goal to cross INR 15,000cr; Q1 INR 3,957cr; domestic volume +11% was a 20-quarter high so we lock the LEVEL) — ~0.92India4 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-312Adani Ports FY2027 EBITDAAdani Ports FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 23,000 crore (guidance INR 25,000-26,000cr maintained with H1 reassessment flagged; Q1 +19% but domestic volume +2%) — ~0.91India5 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-333Trent total store count at 31 Mar 2027Trent NET total store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 1,350 (1,312 at 30 Jun 2026; +20 net in Q1 while DMart added 3; profit growth reported as 22%, 23.5% AND 26%) — ~0.91India6 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-320Avenue Supermarts store count at 31 Mar 2027Avenue Supermarts NET DMart store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 515 (503 at 30 Jun 2026; only 3 added in Q1, fewest in 12 quarters; closures count against it) — ~0.90India8 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-309Asian Paints FY2027 decorative volume growthAsian Paints FY2027 DECORATIVE VOLUME growth >= 5.0% (guidance 8-10% maintained; Q1 volume 9.0% vs VALUE 16.6% — NOT value, NOT revenue) — ~0.90India10 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-297Larsen & Toubro FY2027 revenue growthL&T FY2027 GROUP revenue growth >= 7% (guidance 10-12% MAINTAINED but Q1 delivered 7% — threshold set at the delivered rate, not the guided one) — ~0.91India11 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-340Indian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growthIndian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 7.0% (double-digit guidance reaffirmed; Q1 +15%, a 17th straight record; SEASONALITY INVERTED — Apr-Jun is the WEAKEST quarter) — ~0.92India11 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-287Alstom FY2026/27 adjusted EBIT marginAlstom FY2026/27 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 6.0% (guidance ~6.5% confirmed; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027; EUR 102.8bn backlog) — ~0.90France12 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-299Toyota FY2027 operating incomeToyota FY2027 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 3.1tn (forecast RAISED JPY 400bn to 3.4tn on FX while Q1 operating income FELL — threshold between old and new) — ~0.91Japan12 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

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