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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

October 20263 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-314Samsung DS Division Q3 2026 operating profitSamsung DS Division Q3 2026 operating profit >= KRW 60tn (Q2 DS KRW 89.2tn of a GROUP KRW 89.5tn — the mobile unit LOST KRW 0.7tn; calibration correction to P-106) — ~0.91South Korea30 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-73BitMine ETH treasuryBitMine disclosed ETH holdings ≥ 6,000,000 by Oct 31 — ~0.90United States31 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-210AIA Q3 2026 year-to-date VONBAIA year-to-date VONB ≥US$4.4bn at Q3 2026 (VONB, not annualised new premium) — ~0.92Hong Kong31 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked

November 202637 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-163South Korea October 2026 exportsSouth Korea Oct 2026 exports ≥US$70bn (level, not the base-effect growth rate) — ~0.93South Korea1 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-172India October 2026 GSTIndia Oct 2026 gross GST ≥₹1.90 lakh crore (gross, not net of refunds) — ~0.93India1 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-223Muthoot Q2 FY2027 loan AUMMuthoot Q2 FY27 consolidated TOTAL loan AUM ≥₹1.95 lakh crore (not gold-only, not standalone) — ~0.94India1 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-60ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize unclaimed (ARC-AGI-2) — ~0.82United States2 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-194Indonesia October 2026 CPIIndonesia Oct 2026 headline annual CPI ≤4.0% (vs 2.88% July) — ~0.93Indonesia2 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-24US 2026 midterms — SenateRepublicans retain the Senate — calibrated ~0.54United States3 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.76United States3 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-169Marriott Q3 2026 RevPARMarriott Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth ≥+1.0% (vs +3.4% in Q2) — ~0.91United States3 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-180Ryanair H1 FY2027 trafficRyanair H1 FY27 traffic ≥110M passengers (guided metric; profit guidance withdrawn) — ~0.93Ireland3 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-183Turkey October 2026 CPITürkiye Oct 2026 official annual CPI ≤40% (vs 31.75% July) — ~0.93Türkiye3 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-196Switzerland October 2026 CPISwitzerland Oct 2026 headline annual CPI ≤1.5% (vs 0.4% July) — ~0.94Switzerland3 Nov 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-149Constellation FY2026 guidance floorConstellation keeps FY2026 adj operating EPS floor ≥$11.50 at Q3 — ~0.88United States4 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-330Saudi Aramco Q3 2026 BASE DIVIDENDSaudi Aramco Q3 2026 BASE DIVIDEND >= SAR 75bn (Q2 base dividend SAR 82.1bn; adj net income rose 33% on the Iran war — we do NOT lock earnings, that is an oil price bet) — ~0.93Saudi Arabia4 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-164Maersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDAMaersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA ≥US$2.2bn (~27% below Q2) — ~0.92Denmark5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-175Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenueTrade Desk Q3 2026 revenue ≥$600M (below its own slashed ~$650M guide) — ~0.91United States5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-177MercadoLibre Q3 2026 revenueMercadoLibre Q3 2026 net revenues ≥$9.5bn (vs $10.17bn in Q2) — ~0.93Argentina5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-187Munich Re 9M 2026 net resultMunich Re 9M 2026 group net result ≥€4.8bn (€3.9bn already earned in H1) — ~0.92Germany5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-296Bharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 revenueBharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= Rs 55,000 crore (Q1 Rs 58,539cr; EBITDA vs EBITDAaL differ ~Rs 3,800cr so revenue is locked) — ~0.92India5 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-310SBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profitSBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profit >= INR 19,000 crore (Q1 standalone INR 21,121cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 24,113cr — both reported as net profit) — ~0.91India5 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-178Rheinmetall 9M 2026 salesRheinmetall 9M 2026 consolidated sales ≥€8.0bn (€5.23bn already booked in H1) — ~0.92Germany6 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-233Max Healthcare Q2 FY2027 network gross revenueMax Healthcare Q2 FY2027 NETWORK GROSS REVENUE ≥ Rs 2,850 crore (network line, NOT the consolidated line ~Rs 600cr lower) — ~0.94India6 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-302Titan Q2 FY2027 consolidated total incomeTitan Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED TOTAL INCOME >= Rs 18,000 crore (Q1 Rs 20,753cr on Akshaya Tritiya; jewellery segment Rs 18,253cr sits beside the threshold and is EXCLUDED) — ~0.91India6 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-327Hero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDAHero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDA >= INR 1,450 crore (Q1 EBITDA INR 1,727cr; profit reported BOTH down 17% and up 29%; the 14-16% margin band is MEDIUM-TERM, not FY27 guidance) — ~0.90India6 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-168China October 2026 exportsChina Oct 2026 exports ≥US$300bn (level in USD, not the growth rate) — ~0.93China7 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-224China October 2026 PPIChina Oct 2026 PPI remains below 0% YoY (deflation persists; anti-thesis half) — ~0.90China9 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-227China October 2026 CPIChina Oct 2026 headline CPI ≤2.0% YoY (vs 0.5% July) — ~0.94China9 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-335Power Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profitPower Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profit >= INR 3,200 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 3,598cr vs standalone INR 3,411cr; income ROSE while profit FELL 0.9%) — ~0.92India9 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-176Brazil October 2026 IPCABrazil Oct 2026 12-month IPCA ≤5.5% (vs 4.44% July) — ~0.93Brazil10 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-318NTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PATNTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PAT >= INR 4,800 crore (Q1 standalone INR 5,342cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 6,896cr; the 9,557 MW FY27 capacity target could not be pinned to a basis) — ~0.91India10 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-186Vestas FY2026 margin floorVestas keeps FY2026 EBIT margin floor ≥7% at Q3 (raised from 6-8%) — ~0.88Denmark11 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-292Mainfreight H1 FY2027 revenueMainfreight H1 FY2027 group REVENUE >= NZ$2.60bn as reported (LEVEL-anchored — no numeric guidance; FY26 was NZ$5.38bn) — ~0.91New Zealand11 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-326Tata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDATata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 6,000 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 9,370cr but India STANDALONE INR 9,409cr — standalone HIGHER; Netherlands EUR 4m on EUR 1.4bn; war cost INR 1,200cr) — ~0.90India11 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-185Deutsche Telekom Q3 2026 EBITDAaLDeutsche Telekom Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAaL ≥€11.2bn (vs €11.8bn in Q2) — ~0.93Germany12 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-208Cisco Q1 FY2027 revenueCisco Q1 FY2027 total revenue ≥$17.5bn (guide $18.0-18.2bn) — ~0.93United States12 Nov 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-211Hon Hai Q3 2026 revenueHon Hai Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥NT$2.4tn (floor BELOW Q2, in a quarter guided to grow) — ~0.94Taiwan12 Nov 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-249Siemens FY2026 EPS pre-PPASiemens FY2026 basic EPS PRE-PPA >= EUR 10.70 (the floor held BEFORE the raise to EUR 11.20-11.50; FY ends 30 Sep 2026) — ~0.94Germany12 Nov 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-311Jaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenueJaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenue >= GBP 5.0bn (Q1 GBP 6.0bn, wholesales -10%, disclosed supply disruption; Tata Motors Q1 PAT reported as BOTH INR 775cr and INR 900cr) — ~0.89India12 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

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