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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

July 202637 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-125Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85HIT - Ford Q2 adjusted EBIT +$2.5bn (positive).United States29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-135ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - ServiceNow Q2 subscription revenue $3.877bn, >=$3.80bn.United States29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-98LVMH H1 2026 organic growthLVMH H1 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 0% — ~0.74HIT - LVMH H1 organic revenue growth +2%, >=0%.France28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-104Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90HIT - Visa fiscal-Q3 net revenue $11.6bn, >=$11.2bn.United States28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-17Tour de France 2026 (GC simulation)Pogačar 56.9% win / 91.8% podium — 200k-race Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Pogacar (56.9% win) won the Tour, his 5th title, and podiumed.France26 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-93Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85HIT - Infosys kept its FY27 CC growth floor at 1.5% (narrowed to 1.5-3.0%) and Q1 revenue was $5.08bn (>=$4.9bn).India23 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-96Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Intel Q2 revenue $16.1bn, >=$13.8bn.United States23 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-33Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 UnpackedFold 8 / Fold 8 Wide announced at summer-2026 UnpackedHIT - Samsung announced the Galaxy Z Fold 8 (+ Fold 8 Ultra, Flip 8) at Unpacked on Jul 22.South Korea22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-45Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYHIT - Google Cloud Q2 revenue grew 82% YoY, >=50%.United States22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-101Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90HIT - Coca-Cola Q2 organic revenue growth +6%, >=3%.United States22 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-127Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Lockheed Martin Q2 EPS $7.94, >=$6.00.United States21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-133Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Verizon Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30, >=$1.15.United States21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-35HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 PATQ1 FY27 standalone PAT > ₹18,155cr one-off-inflated base — ~0.60HIT - HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 standalone PAT ~INR 19,060cr, >INR 18,155cr.India20 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-06FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)HIT (all partitions) - Spain won: not a first-time nation (the 63.3% side), UEFA winner (65.8%), not CONMEBOL, and both finalists (Spain + Argentina) were in the frozen Big-4 so >=1-Big-4-in-the-final (72.5%). Champion Spain was the ensemble's #2 name (14.2%).not yet tagged19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-15The Odyssey (Nolan)Opens #1, ≥ $80M 3-day domesticHIT - The Odyssey opened #1 at $124.5M domestic, >=$80M (Nolan's best opening).United States19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-19The Open 2026 (golf field simulation)Scheffler 15.8% win / 60% top-5 — 100k-tournament Monte-Carlo (field 43.3%)HIT (calibrated) - Scheffler finished T4, meeting the 60% top-5 and 86% top-10 calls; and the brief's explicit signal that the field (43.3%) was the likeliest winner held as longshot Ryan Fox won. The locked win prob was only 15.8%.United Kingdom19 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-08TSMC Q2 revenue≥ NT$1.23T (Apr+May already public = 827.7B)HIT - TSMC Q2 revenue NT$1,270.38bn (~NT$1.27T), >=NT$1.23T.Taiwan16 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-12Netflix Q2 revenue$12.30–12.85B (±2.2% of its $12.57B guide)HIT - Netflix Q2 revenue $12.56bn, inside the $12.30-12.85bn band.United States16 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-90ASML Q2 2026 net salesASML Q2 2026 total net sales ≥€8.2bn — ~0.93HIT - ASML Q2 net sales EUR 9.3bn, >=EUR 8.2bn.Netherlands16 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-116J&J Q2 2026 adjusted EPSJohnson & Johnson Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.70 — ~0.90HIT - Johnson & Johnson Q2 adjusted EPS $2.90, >=$2.70.United States15 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-128Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Morgan Stanley Q2 net revenue $21.3bn, >=$16.0bn.United States15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-134BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.United States15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-97JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.United States14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-107Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).United States14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-120Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.United States14 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-03India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both.India13 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss
P-14Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)HIT - the champion was NOT Alcaraz: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev to retain the title.United Kingdom12 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-18Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Sinner (locked ~51%) won the title, defending his crown.United Kingdom12 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-131Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.United States10 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-43TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BHIT - TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenue ~$7.58bn, inside $7.55-7.85bn.India9 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-118PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.United States9 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-112026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).United States8 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-80OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0).not yet tagged6 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-13F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPHIT - Antonelli remained championship leader after the British GP (Leclerc won; Antonelli P16/no points after a wheel-shield failure); lead trimmed to 25 pts over Russell. Criterion = still leader, TRUE.United Kingdom5 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-05Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).United States2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss
P-66Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72HIT - Australia Women reached (and won) the ICC Women's T20 WC final, beating England by 7 wickets.Australia2 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-09BYD Q2 NEV sales> 950k units (Apr+May already public = 704.6k)HIT - BYD Q2 NEV sales 1.108M units, >950k.ChinaHong Kong1 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit

June 20263 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in June 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-65Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).United States24 Jun 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-02US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.United States17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Miss
P-01US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).United States10 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Hit

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