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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 265 of 345 ·Awaiting resolution ×Clear all

November 202614 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-234Samvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenueSamvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 33,000 crore (Q1 record Rs 35,243.8cr) — ~0.92India13 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-341Apollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenueApollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue >= INR 6,500 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 7,043cr vs Healthcare Services INR 3,567cr; PAT growth reported as BOTH +34% and +38.4%) — ~0.92India13 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-342Novelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDANovelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= US$400m (Q1 US$516m; parent Hindalco group EBITDA INR 14,989cr +73% on record aluminium margins was DECLINED as an LME bet; EBITDA growth reported as both +24% and +37%) — ~0.90India13 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-281Richemont H1 FY2027 salesRichemont H1 FY2027 group SALES >= EUR 11.5bn at actual rates (Q1 alone EUR 6.3bn; LEVEL-anchored — Richemont publishes no guidance) — ~0.92France14 Nov 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-226China October 2026 M2 growthChina Oct 2026 M2 growth ≥7.0% YoY (rate not level - levels conflicted) — ~0.93China15 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-228China October 2026 total social financingChina Oct 2026 TSF STOCK growth ≥7.0% YoY (stock not flow) — ~0.93China15 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.92United States16 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.87ChinaUnited States17 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-25GTA VI release dateGTA VI ships Nov 19 2026, no further delay — ~0.72not yet tagged19 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-195Japan October 2026 core CPIJapan Oct 2026 core CPI ex-fresh-food ≤3.0% YoY (vs 1.8% July) — ~0.93Japan20 Nov 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.91United States25 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.93United States25 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-241Fisher & Paykel Healthcare H1 FY2027 operating revenueF&P Healthcare H1 FY2027 OPERATING REVENUE >= NZ$1.18bn (guides ~NZ$1.24bn; reported NZD, no FX restatement) — ~0.92New Zealand25 Nov 2026locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.72United States30 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked

December 202626 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.91United States1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-157European TTF gas 1 Dec 2026TTF front-month gas settles ≤€100/MWh on 1 Dec 2026 — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-182Uranium spot 1 Dec 2026Uranium spot ≤US$130/lb U3O8 on 1 Dec 2026 (spot, not long-term contract) — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-199Arabica coffee 1 Dec 2026ICE Arabica Coffee C settles ≤500c/lb on 1 Dec 2026 (~16% above the 52-week high) — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-20F1 2026 Drivers' title (rest-of-season simulation)Antonelli ~70% champion — 40k-run Monte-Carlo (model 81% / market 61%, disclosed)not yet tagged15 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260MUnited States21 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.78United States21 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-203Nikkei 225 year-end 2026Nikkei 225 closes 2026 inside 50,000-82,000 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.92Japan30 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-204DAX year-end 2026DAX closes 2026 inside 21,000-32,000 (band; correlated with P-198, disclosed) — ~0.92Germany30 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-endUnited States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-28Strategy (MSTR) 1M-BTC targetMSTR holds < 1,000,000 BTC at year-end — ~0.90not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-29Bitcoin year-end 2026BTC CME BRR settles < $90,000 on Dec 31 — ~0.85not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.78United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.84United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-53Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.88Japan31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-61Stablecoin market capTotal stablecoin market cap > $340B at year-end — ~0.82not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-62USDT #1 stablecoinUSDT is the #1 stablecoin by market cap at year-end — ~0.98not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-63No private-fusion Q>1 in 2026No verified private-fusion scientific Q>1 in 2026 — ~0.96not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-83Gold year-end 2026Gold closes 2026 ≥ $3,500/oz (structural floor) — ~0.95not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.80India31 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

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