Skip to main content
RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 11 of 345 ·Next 90 days ×September 2026 ×Clear all

September 202611 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-167Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.United States1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82United States17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82United States17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93United Kingdom18 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteUnited States23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-142Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.93Switzerland25 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93United States28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-138RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95Australia29 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeUnited States30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Locked
P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95United States30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90United States30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

The running scoreboard → · The Intelligence Library →