The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 94 of 345 ·United States ×Next 90 days ×Clear all
July 20268 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-134 | BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.United States | 15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-97 | JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.United States | 14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-107 | Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).United States | 14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-120 | Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.United States | 14 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-131 | Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.United States | 10 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-118 | PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.United States | 9 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-11 | 2026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).United States | 8 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-05 | Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).United States | 2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Miss |
June 20263 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-65 | Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).United States | 24 Jun 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-02 | US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.United States | 17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Miss |
| P-01 | US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).United States | 10 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Hit |
September 20267 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-103 | Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-143 | General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-58 | Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteUnited States | 23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-100 | LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93United States | 28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-16 | Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeUnited States | 30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-88 | Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-108 | US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Locked |
October 202622 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-154 | Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92United States | 15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-200 | SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93United States | 16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-165 | Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93United States | 20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-207 | Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92United States | 20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-166 | CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91United States | 21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-212 | Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93United States | 21 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-160 | Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-161 | Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-170 | GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-214 | Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-215 | Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93United States | 23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-150 | Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-158 | Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-171 | WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-188 | First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-148 | UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-191 | PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-239 | Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-78 | Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Locked |
| P-173 | S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-174 | Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-192 | Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |