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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 16 of 345 ·New Zealand ×August 2027 ×Clear all

August 202716 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in August 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-244Contact Energy FY2027 EBITDAFContact Energy FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (FY26 EBITDAF NZ$1,011m; floor set robust to the EBITDAF vs 'normalised EBITDA' label mismatch) — ~0.90New Zealand16 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-339Heartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPATHeartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPAT >= NZ$92m (guidance is a FLOOR — 'at least NZ$102m' — EXCLUDING TSB transaction costs; FY26 underlying NZ$90.4m vs REPORTED NZ$93.2m) — ~0.91New Zealand17 Aug 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-246Spark New Zealand FY2027 adjusted EBITDAISpark NZ FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAI >= NZ$980m (guidance NZ$1,010-1,080m; guidance credibility explicitly discounted) — ~0.89New Zealand18 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-306Fletcher Building FY2027 EBIT ex-propertyFletcher FY2027 EBIT before significant items EXCLUDING property sales >= NZ$300m (FY26 NZ$362m ex-property vs NZ$414m incl; management WARNED on 1H FY27) — ~0.88New Zealand18 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-243Auckland Airport FY2027 underlying profit after taxAuckland Airport FY2027 UNDERLYING PROFIT AFTER TAX >= NZ$280m (guidance NZ$290-330m; underlying not statutory) — ~0.90New Zealand19 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-294EBOS Group FY2027 underlying EBITDAEBOS FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= A$610m in AUSTRALIAN dollars (guidance A$635-655m; NZ-domiciled but guides in AUD) — ~0.91AustraliaNew Zealand19 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-332Vulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAVulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$120m (FY26 NZ$130m; FY27 gets TWELVE months of Roofing Industries vs nine; NZ$130m EBITDA became NZ$18m NPAT) — ~0.91New Zealand19 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-316Vector FY2027 adjusted EBITDAVector FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$500m (guidance NZ$540-560m; FY26 NZ$482m on the ComCom price reset; chosen as the UNCORRELATED counterweight to P-244/P-300/P-308) — ~0.91New Zealand20 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-323SkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDASkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= NZ$150m (FY26 underlying NZ$181.6m vs REPORTED NZ$120.5m, NZ$61m apart; NO FY27 guidance; NZ$30m cost-out targeted) — ~0.90New Zealand20 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-245a2 Milk FY2027 revenuea2 Milk FY2027 total REVENUE >= NZ$2,000m (DERIVED: mid-single-digit guided growth applied to the FY2026 base of NZ$1,974.9m; a rate was guided, not a level) — ~0.91New Zealand23 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-295Chorus FY2027 EBITDAChorus FY2027 EBITDA >= NZ$715m (guidance NZ$730-760m; the regulated fibre network under Spark at P-246) — ~0.92New Zealand23 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-315Freightways FY2027 EBITAFreightways FY2027 EBITA >= NZ$160m (NO numeric FY27 guidance; management said 'softer for longer'; FY26 EBITA NZ$181.6m) — ~0.90New Zealand23 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-324Skellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPATSkellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPAT >= NZ$58m (FY26 NZ$64.2m, a TENTH straight record; net debt <NZ$2m; management sees 'no early signs of slowdown') — ~0.91New Zealand24 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-300Meridian Energy FY2027 EBITDAFMeridian FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$950m (guidance NZ$1,040-1,120m assuming NORMAL hydrology; FY26 NZ$1,051m vs FY25 NZ$611m drought — buffer 8.7% for rainfall) — ~0.89New Zealand25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-307Port of Tauranga FY2027 underlying earningsPort of Tauranga FY2027 UNDERLYING earnings >= NZ$145m (guidance NZ$160-175m; FY26 record NZ$155.3m; Air NZ scouted and DROPPED for withdrawing FY27 guidance) — ~0.91New Zealand25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-308Mercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAFMercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (guidance is a POINT of NZ$1,075m conditioned on 4.1TWh hydro; FY26 NZ$1,068m; correlated with P-244 and P-300) — ~0.89New Zealand25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

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