The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 9 of 345 ·China ×Next 90 days ×Clear all
August 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-139 | Alibaba Cloud June quarterAlibaba Cloud Intelligence external revenue grows ≥ 30% YoY — ~0.85HIT — locked Cloud external revenue growth ≥30% YoY; external revenue growth accelerated to 45% in the June 2026 quarter (segment revenue RMB48,437m / US$7,139m), reported 20 Aug 2026. DISCLOSURE: Alibaba renamed the segment from Cloud Intelligence Group to AI Cloud and Compute Services and folded in the T-Head chip arm, so the 45% is the successor segment's external growth. The call clears the 30% floor either way — pre-rename external growth was already 40% in the March quarter.China | 20 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
July 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-09 | BYD Q2 NEV sales> 950k units (Apr+May already public = 704.6k)HIT - BYD Q2 NEV sales 1.108M units, >950k.ChinaHong Kong | 1 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
October 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-89 | China Q3 2026 GDPChina official Q3 2026 GDP ≥4.5% YoY — ~0.92China | 18 Oct 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Locked |
November 20266 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-168 | China October 2026 exportsChina Oct 2026 exports ≥US$300bn (level in USD, not the growth rate) — ~0.93China | 7 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-224 | China October 2026 PPIChina Oct 2026 PPI remains below 0% YoY (deflation persists; anti-thesis half) — ~0.90China | 9 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-227 | China October 2026 CPIChina Oct 2026 headline CPI ≤2.0% YoY (vs 0.5% July) — ~0.94China | 9 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-226 | China October 2026 M2 growthChina Oct 2026 M2 growth ≥7.0% YoY (rate not level - levels conflicted) — ~0.93China | 15 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-228 | China October 2026 total social financingChina Oct 2026 TSF STOCK growth ≥7.0% YoY (stock not flow) — ~0.93China | 15 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-225 | US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.87ChinaUnited States | 17 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Locked |